Global Warming

by Roger Lovejoy

For the past 127 years there is data to show there has been considerable global warming

Global Warming is a consequence of more solar energy being absorbed by the Earth. Although human activity has generated heat by burning fuels, it is not heat from combustion that is a significant part of Global Warming.

It is the logic of physics that shows an increase CO₂ in the atmposphere has a greenhouse effect. As the planet warms sea level will continue to rise adding to the devastating meteorolocial, geological and biological environmental upheavals.

To warrant fears that Global Warming, will have a deleterious effect on the life forms that have developed for many thousands of years and further, generate a rise in sea level, there has to be a significant increase in the average Global Temperate for a prolonged period.

What constitutes 'significant' and 'prolonged'?

Using average yearly temperature data, from the Earth Sciences Directorate, (now a part of NASA), I have constructed the graph below and invite you to respond to the comments appended.

First let me explain the relevance of the three trend lines across the chart.

• The black line is the 'best fit' of what the increase would be without the extremes.
• The red line is presents the average for the preceding 10 years, hence it starts at 1892.
• The blue line is the average for period of 40 years starting at 1922.

How to interpret the data as shown.

• The first query I have is : What were temperatures pre 1882 and how would they be significant?
• Note that although all three trend lines show an overall increase, it is significant that from the Mid 1930's to the mid 1960's there was a marked decrease in global temperatures. What initiated this?
  There are various possibilities and any combination of them could be used. (Reduced solar activity or Global Dimming due to pollution to mention a couple). It is hardly likely to be reduced greenhouse gases emissions at a time of war and massive redevelopment. Even if it was it would imply that the underlying trend was Global Cooling.
• The other notable change is the high rate of increase from early 1960's. The last 40 years show a significant increase, which if maintained with no doubt change the climate significantly.
• You can make your own projection based upon any of the trend lines show. Clearly the 40 trend line shows the most concern. Imagine what the linear trend line would look like if it was only for the last 40 years.

One good bit of news is that once fossil fuels run out we will need to live within the carbon cycle. The problem being we have no realistic idea of what life on Earth will be like then.

The sad news is that we may not learn to live within the carbon cycle until the fossil fuels run out. But unlike  Cuba we have a decade to work on it.

Consider the Greenhouse Effect or Solar Trap 

Would you like to discuss this issue ?

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